Game Preview: Broncos at Patriots

SCOUTING THE MATCHUPS

By Paul Perillo

When the Patriots run – Edge: Patriots

A lot has happened during the week that this game was originally supposed to take place, but in reality we don’t know much more now than we did before the postponement. That’s especially true with regard to Cam Newton’s status, and that could have an impact on the Patriots ability to run the ball. Newton provides so many options to the team’s ground game, both as a runner himself and as a threat to the defense. His absence means the Broncos would have one less player to account for on run defense, and Denver has actually been reasonably effective in that department this season. Denver’s 3-4 front ranks 11th in the league in rushing defense, allowing 109 yards per game through four weeks. Nose tackle Mike Purcell lines up between ends DeShawn Williams and Shelby Harris in front of an active pair of inside linebackers in Josey Jewell and Alexander Johnson. The Patriots want to establish the run, whether Newton is part of the equation or not. The offensive line has been rock solid in that department, and with Damien Harris now in the lineup after opening on IR the running back corps has more depth and possibly more explosiveness. Harris showed some of that with a terrific 41-yard run last Monday night en route to a 100-yard effort. The Patriots piled up 185 yards on the ground even without Newton, and that was with starters David Andrews and Shaq Mason out of the lineup. The Patriots should be able to move it in the running game against Denver as well.

When the Patriots pass – Edge: Broncos

This is where Newton’s availability really comes into play. Neither Brian Hoyer nor Jarrett Stidham looked ready to lead an NFL offense in Kansas City. Hoyer made several mental and physical mistakes and Stidham could very well get the start should Newton not be cleared in time to take on the Broncos. But Stidham didn’t show great promise throwing the ball either, particularly on his second interception when he missed Damiere Byrd for a potential touchdown. He was thrust into a very difficult spot with little practice time to prepare, though, so it’s possible he could improve if given another chance. The Patriots should have opportunities in the passing game against a Denver secondary that has struggled. Corner A.J. Bouye remains on IR with a shoulder injury, leaving Michael Ojemudia and Bryce Callahan as the starters along with safeties Kareem Jackson and Justin Simmons. That group ranks 21st in pass defense, allowing 256 yards per game. Opponents have thrown seven touchdowns while the Broncos have just one interception through four weeks. Whether it’s Newton, Stidham or Hoyer they could use a return to form for Julian Edelman. The trusty wideout has struggled with drops and hasn’t been his normal self after the catch as he deals with a knee injury. Byrd has been quietly consistent while N’Keal Harry is chipping in with some plays as well. The backs should remain part of the passing game, and they will need to continue their fine work in pass protection against some of the ILB blitzes the Broncos have used recently. The passing game has been just average with Newton, and without him things got ugly in KC.

When the Broncos run – Edge: Patriots

Melvin Gordon is enjoying a bit of a bounce back in his first season in Denver, averaging 4.3 yards per carry with three rushing touchdowns. The problem is Denver has been playing mostly from behind and hasn’t been able to lean on him as much as they would like. Also, the versatile Phillip Lindsay has been out since Week 1 due to a toe injury. Coach Vic Fangio believes Lindsay will play against the Patriots, which could provide Denver with a solid one-two backfield punch. The Patriots turned in a strong effort on run defense in Kansas City, often playing with light fronts while dealing with the Chiefs potent air attack. Despite that, Lawrence Guy and Deatrich Wise in particular did a great job containing Clyde Edwards-Helaire, limiting him to just 4 yards per carry. That tandem will be counted on once again as Byron Cowart’s status is in question after his positive COVID-19 test. The mindset on defense should change this week as the Broncos limited passing attack should translate into more bodies being devoted to stopping Gordon and Lindsay. Fangio likely wants to establish the ground game to help protect third-string quarterback Brett Rypien, in the event that starter Drew Lock remains out of the lineup, and keep him out of obvious passing situations. But the Patriots will not allow that to happen often and should have enough to keep the Broncos in check.

When the Broncos pass – Edge: Patriots

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At the start of the season this matchup had the potential to be interesting. Second-year quarterback Drew Lock showed promise in limited work as a rookie, and with receivers Courtland Sutton, Jerry Jeudy, K.J. Hamler and Tim Patrick as well as tight end Noah Fant at his disposal the Broncos looked like an offense on the rise. Then Lock went down with a shoulder injury and will likely miss his third straight game, although the postponed will give him a chance to get back in the lineup. Sutton is lost for the season on IR, Hamler’s hamstring will keep him out of the lineup and Fant is questionable with an ankle injury. Only Jeudy and Patrick finished their Week 4 over the Jets, leaving Rypien with very few options. Rypien, a former practice squad quarterback who took over for backup Jeff Driskel two weeks ago, made some plays against the Jets in posting the win, but he also tossed three interceptions and nearly cost his team the game. The injuries, coupled with Rypien’s inexperience and a struggling offensive line point toward another turnover-filled game for the former undrafted rookie who is the nephew of former Washington quarterback Mark Rypien. The Patriots secondary usually feasts on situations like this, and it would not be surprising to see some confusion leading to more picks for the Patriots – even if Stephon Gilmore is out on the lineup.

Special Teams – Edge: Patriots

Nick Folk remains a question mark but he made both of his kicks in Kansas City and came away perfect for the first time this season. Jake Bailey was solid against the Chiefs as well, backing up KC on a number of occasions. He remains a strength in terms of flipping field position. Denver has a trusty kicker in Brandon McManus, who has just one miss this season and that came from 58 yards out at Heinz Field, a traditionally tough place for kickers. The Broncos have a slight edge in the return game with Diontae Spencer, who took a punt back 41 yards earlier this season. The Patriots welcomed Gunner Olszewski back into the lineup and he returned punts in his season debut. Neither side has gotten anything on kick returns while both teams have enjoyed solid work in covering both kicks and punts with the Patriots being more consistent, especially on kicks.

TALE OF THE TAPE