Game Preview: Patriots at Ravens

SCOUTING THE MATCHUPS

By Paul Perillo

When the Patriots run – Edge: Ravens

The Ravens defense has struggled all season but one area that has not been the case is stopping the run. Baltimore allows just 84.3 yards per game on the ground, which is the third best total in the league. The front has been stout despite losing some of its key pieces, especially at linebacker where veteran Pernell McPhee was lost for the season with a torn triceps. Matthew Judon is the leader of the group and has been augmented recently by the additions of L.J. Fort and Josh Bynes. Tyus Bowser and Patrick Onwuasor have added some stability to the group as well, helping the big guys up front control the ground game. Meanwhile, Sony Michel continues to be stuck in neutral. He got off to a decent starts against the Browns but slowly reverted to his prior 2019 production as averaged just 3.3 yards per carry. Rex Burkhead returned to the lineup after missing almost a month but didn’t find any running room either. The offensive line was missing another starter as Shaq Mason sat out the Browns game, and life won’t get any easier on the road against the stout Ravens.

When the Patriots pass – Edge: Patriots

We mentioned that Baltimore’s defense has not played well and there are two reasons for that: a lack of pressure and poor health in the secondary. That’s a lethal combination and it shows when looking at the stats. The Ravens allowed 265 passing yards per game and had just 12 sacks in the first seven weeks. Those totals both rank 26th in the league. Injuries ravaged the secondary with corner Jimmy Smith (knee) missing most of those seven games and safeties Tony Jefferson, DeShon Elliott as well as nickel corner Tavon Young all being lost for the season. But there is reason for optimism in Baltimore as Smith is nearing a return and the Ravens traded for talented-but-troubled corner Marcus Peters two weeks ago. Peters was plugged into the starting lineup immediately, joining Marlon Humphrey and veteran Brandon Carr. Earl Thomas is looking more comfortable is his first year with a new team, and there’s reason to believe the Ravens pass defense will improve in the second half. The Patriots have shown flashes of competence in the passing game but most all of it centers around Tom Brady finding Julian Edelman. That could change as Mohamed Sanu continues his indoctrination into the offense, and assuming Mason returns and the protection improves, the Patriots should be able to make some plays through the air.

When the Ravens run – Edge: Ravens

It’s not often the opponent has gotten an edge in a matchup against the Patriots defense but Baltimore’s running game is special and New England’s run defense is the lone area on that side of the ball that hasn’t been. The Ravens lead the league in rushing yards and rushing yards per attempt. They also rank second in overall yards, and a big part of that is the dynamic running of quarterback Lamar Jackson. Jackson is among the league leaders in rushing – not just for quarterbacks. He leads the team with 576 yards on 83 attempts, averaging nearly 7 yards per carry. What makes Jackson tough to contain is the offense orchestrated by coordinator Greg Roman, who isn’t afraid to call his quarterback’s number. Jackson doesn’t just beat opponents by escaping the pocket and scrambling, although he does plenty of that as well. Roman puts the ball in Jackson’s hands by design, running a variety of zone reads and other quarterback runs that have hurt opponents all season. When Jackson isn’t doing the damage Mark Ingram is. He averages 4.7 yards per carry and has seven touchdowns and 470 yards on the ground. That combination has racked up yards and allowed Baltimore to control the clock to the tune of 35 minutes per game. The Patriots defense has been other-worldly but against the run it’s had some occasional hiccups. While the group is near the top of the league in yards per game, it stands in the middle of the pack in rushing yards per play. Jackson is a different dynamic, though, and it’s hard to imagine the Patriots allowing this kind of attack to cause problems. But the Patriots haven’t seen this kind of explosiveness as the quarterback position either.

When the Ravens pass – Edge: Patriots

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This figures to be an overwhelming edge for the Patriots and might be the difference in the game. New England has a league-leading 19 interceptions to its credit, and the Ravens passing attack is pedestrian at best. Jackson isn’t the most accurate passer in the league, although he has improved. Roman tries to use the tight ends to give Jackson some high percentage throws. Mark Andrews (36 catches, 449 yards) leads the way but Hayden Hurst and Nick Boyle are also involved. Rookies Marquise “Hollywood” Brown and Miles Boykin join Willie Snead in an improving group of receivers. Brown (ankle) needs to stay healthy because his exceptional deep speed opens up a variety of options for Jackson and the passing game. But as promising as the youngsters have been, they have yet to experience a deep and talented secondary like New England’s. Stephon Gilmore is playing once again at an All-Pro level and will give Jackson fits. The ballhawing nature of this group has changed the tenor of several games already this season, and given Jackson’s relative lack of experience that just might be the case on the road again Sunday night.

Special Teams – Edge: Ravens

Justin Tucker is the game’s premier kicker and he’s yet to miss this season. He connected on all 16 field goals as well as 20 PATs, giving the hosts a decided edge over the struggling Mike Nugent. Nugent was perfect against the Jets but followed that with a pair of misses against Cleveland including one that was blocked from 29 yards out. The Patriots coverage teams received a boost from Justin Bethel, who joins Matthew Slater to form a terrific pair of gunners on the punt unit. Rookie Jake Bailey continues his strong work punting and has added kickoffs to his duties following the loss of Stephen Gostkowski. Brandon Bolden hasn’t given the team much on kickoff returns while rookie Gunner Olszewski has been solid handling punts after one hiccup in Week 3 against the Jets. The Ravens use former Patriot Cyrus Jones on punts and he’s averaging 10.6 yards per attempt while Justice Hill hasn’t had much production in the kick return department. Veteran punter Sam Koch has pinned opponents inside their 20 on 10 of his 18 punts this season while Bailey has done so 18 times but on 43 attempts. Tucker’s experience and consistency give the Ravens the edge.