A recent survey conducted by Salve Regina University’s Pell Center has revealed a closely contested presidential race in Rhode Island, with President Biden holding a slim 7-percentage-point lead over former President Trump among likely voters. The study, overseen by Pell Center Associate Director and Fellow Katie Sonder and conducted by Embold Research from June 5 to 14, 2024, gathered insights from 1450 respondents with a margin of error of 2.8 percent.
According to the survey results, Biden is polling at 40%, Trump at 33%, and independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. at 12%, with approximately one in ten voters undecided.
In the 2020 election, Biden won Rhode Island by 20 points with 59% of the vote, while Trump garnered 39%.
The poll underscores the significance of unaffiliated voters, who could sway the outcome significantly. While Trump leads Biden among this group (39% to 25%), more than 30% of their votes remain undecided or in support of other candidates, such as Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
Beyond the electoral numbers, the survey highlighted deep-seated concerns among Rhode Island voters about the impact of fake news on political polarization and the integrity of the upcoming elections. Over three-quarters of respondents noted an increase in political divisions over the past year, reflecting broader anxieties about the health of U.S. democracy.
Democrats expressed concerns about potential attempts to overturn election results, violence, and voter suppression, while Republicans were particularly worried about voter fraud, misuse of mail-in ballots, and ballot counting accuracy. This disparity in concerns underscores a broader skepticism among Republicans, who are significantly less confident than Democrats in the fairness and accuracy of the 2024 elections.
Katie Sonder, commenting on the survey findings, emphasized the electorate’s apprehension about misinformation and the need to rebuild trust in the electoral process. She highlighted the importance of fostering productive civic engagement and promoting understanding across political divides.
The survey forms part of the Pell Center’s Voices of Value project, aimed at deepening understanding of political polarization and promoting empathy towards differing political views among Rhode Islanders. The findings provide critical insights into voter preferences and concerns ahead of the 2024 elections, indicating a highly competitive race in Rhode Island that could pivot on the decisions of unaffiliated voters.
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