In a new national poll conducted by Salve Regina University’s Pell Center and Embold Research, Vice President Kamala Harris holds a narrow lead over former President Donald Trump among likely voters, but the race is far from uniform across different demographic groups and regions. The poll, which surveyed 2,696 likely voters from August 8 to 15, found Harris ahead by four percentage points, but with significant variations based on age, ethnicity, and the historical regions of the United States.
The generational divide is particularly stark. Harris enjoys overwhelming support from voters aged 18-34, leading Trump by 31 points. However, her advantage narrows among voters aged 35-49, where she leads by just four points. Conversely, Trump finds his strongest support among voters aged 50-64, leading Harris by 15 points, while those 65 and older show a slight preference for Trump, leading by two points. Younger voters also show a higher level of indecision, with 7% of those under 35 still undecided compared to just 3% among those 50 and older.
Ethnic divides also play a crucial role in the race. While Trump leads white respondents by seven points, Harris dominates among minority groups. She leads by 10 points among Hispanic voters, 33 points among Asian-Americans and Pacific Islanders, and 59 points among Black voters. Undecided voters are more common among these minority groups, with 10% of Black and 12% of Asian-American and Pacific Islander respondents yet to make up their minds, compared to just 4% of white and 5% of Hispanic respondents.
The poll also reveals entrenched loyalties from the 2020 election, with only 2% of Trump or Biden voters indicating they would switch parties in the upcoming election. However, Harris holds a significant advantage among those who did not vote in 2020, leading Trump by 23 points. Among white evangelicals, Trump retains a solid base, with 88% expressing their intention to vote for him, compared to just 16% of the religiously unaffiliated backing him.
Regionally, the poll underscores the persistent cultural and political divides within the country. Using the American Nations model, which categorizes U.S. regions based on historical settlement patterns and cultural influences, the poll found Trump leading in Greater Appalachia by 13 points and in the Deep South by 2 points. Harris, however, leads in the traditionally pivotal Midlands region by 6 points and holds an advantage in all other regions, including a tie in the Far West. These findings suggest a decline in Trump’s support in some of the most reliably conservative regions compared to the 2020 election, where he won Greater Appalachia by 21 points, the Deep South by 7 points, and the Far West by 5 points.
The American Nations results, while illuminating, come with larger margins of error due to smaller sample sizes in some regions, ranging from 4% to 14% depending on the region’s population. These regional results should therefore be interpreted with caution. Additionally, the age and ethnicity findings were drawn from registered voter samples, potentially introducing a slightly larger margin of error than the 2% in the overall poll.
The poll was conducted as part of Nationhood Lab, a project at Salve Regina University’s Pell Center focused on studying the challenges to U.S. nationhood and democracy. This project aims to explore regional differences across various aspects of American life and their implications for the nation’s political landscape.
For a detailed methodology and further information, Embold Research has provided a full statement here.
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