Game Preview: Patriots at Giants

MEMORABLE MATCHUPS

• Aug. 15, 1971 — The Patriots defeated the Giants 20-14 in the opening preseason game at the old Foxboro Stadium.
• Dec. 21, 1996 — The Patriots rallied from a 22-3 fourth-quarter deficit to clinch a first-round playoff bye with a 23-22 win at Giants Stadium.
• Aug. 10, 2001 — New England began its first Super Bowl championship season with a 14-0 preseason shutout of the defending NFC champion Giants.
• Dec. 29, 2007 — The Patriots defeat the Giants by a thrilling 38-35 score to cap off the first 16-0 regular season in NFL history.
• February 3, 2008 — The Patriots faced the Giants in Super Bowl XLII in Glendale, Ariz. The Giants 17-14 win snapped the Patriots perfect season.
• February 5, 2012 — The Patriots faced the Giants in Super Bowl XLVI in Indianapolis, Ind. The Giants took a 21-17 lead when they scored with 57 seconds left in the game and held the Patriots on a final drive to secure the win.
• November 15, 2015 – K Stephen Gostkowski drilled a 54-yard field goal with one second to play to lift the Patriots to a 27-26 come-from-behind victory. The Giants took a 26-24 lead with 1:47 to play before QB Tom Brady drove the Patriots 44 yards and converted a fourth-and-10 on the series to set up the game-winning field goal.

SCOUTING THE MATCHUPS

By Paul Perillo

When the Patriots run – Edge: Patriots

The bye week came at the worst possible time for Rhamondre Stevenson. The third-year back was in the midst of his best stretch of the season by far, following up his 87-yard effort in the loss to Washington with a solid 88-yard outing in Germany against the Colts. He’s averaged better than 4 yards per carry in three of his last five games and at least 3.8 yards per carry in all five. Despite the break, expect the recent spike in production to continue. The Giants are among the worst defenses in football when it comes to stopping the run. New York ranks 29th in the league, allowing 135.1 yards per game and 30th in yards per carry at 4.8. Those are surprising numbers considering Dexter Lawrence mans the middle of the Giants 3-4 front and he is one of the most disruptive players in the game. A’Shawn Robinson and Rakeem Nunez-Roches line up alongside Lawrence with Azeez Ojulari and Kayvon Thibodeau on the edges. The latter pair is known more for getting after than passer than stopping the run, and that’s where opponents have attacked. Middle linebacker Bobby Okereke is solid but the Giants have struggled all season. Look for Stevenson to continue his recent upswing with his power to break tackles certain to cause some problems for a run defense that hasn’t been up to the task all season.

When the Patriots pass – Edge: Giants

It’s hard to give the Patriots an edge in this matchup against anyone based on how the passing game has performed most of the season. Mac Jones continues to make crippling mistakes at the most inopportune times and in the last outing in Germany he was pulled by Bill Belichick with the game on the line. Jones’ interception near the goal line on a badly underthrown pass intended for a wide-open Mike Gesicki was the final straw against the Colts, as Bailey Zappe came off the bench to run the final two-minute drill with the Patriots trailing 10-6. Zappe was ultimately picked off as well, so it will be interesting to see how Belichick responds coming out of the bye against the Giants. New York’s pass defense hasn’t been much better than the run, but most of the problems have been due to a poor offense that often puts the team in bad spots. The Giants rank 22nd in the league, allowing 236.5 passing yards per game and 25th with 7 yards per pass play. Corners Tre Hawkins, Deonte Banks and Cor’Dale Flott join safeties Xavier McKinney and Jason Pinnock in the secondary with Darnay Holmes, Adoree Jackson and Nick McCloud also seeing time. The Giants have combined for nine interceptions, including linebacker Isaiah Simmons’ game-clinching pick-six Sunday at Washington. Whether it’s Jones or Zappe or Will Grier, the Patriots will struggle finding options in the passing game beyond rookie Demario Douglas, who has emerged as the most dependable wideout.

When the Giants run – Edge: Patriots

Run defense has been far and away the best element of the Patriots team during the 2023 season. The big guys up front have been stout all season long, led by Lawrence Guy, Davon Godchaux and most recently Christian Barmore. They’ve done a great job of filling gaps and protecting linebackers Ja’Whaun Bentley and Jahlani Tavai, leading New England to post gaudy numbers against the run. Opponents average just 97.7 yards per game on the ground (ninth in the league) and 3.4 yards per carry (second). Even when the Patriots have faced pass-heavy teams and been forced to go with lighter boxes, the Patriots have generally done the job up front. The Giants have one of the most dangerous backs in the league in Saquan Barkley, and despite the offense’s season-long struggles, he is posting a solid season. Barkley has 651 yards on 153 carries for a 4.3-yard average but has just one rushing touchdown. The Giants will try to establish Barkley early in the game in an effort to take some heat off rookie third-string quarterback Tommy DeVito, so look for the Patriots game plan to involve getting bodies around the line of scrimmage to prevent Barkley from making any dangerous cutbacks to daylight. The Patriots have faced tougher challenges in the past and for the most part have dominated.

When the Giants pass – Edge: Patriots

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Not much has gone right for the Giants offense this season and that all starts with the passing game. Most of those struggles have been due to the guys up front as New York has cycled through more than a half dozen combinations due to health problems and other factors. The offensive line has been ineffective, allowing 62 sacks on the season including five in the first quarter alone against the Commanders on Sunday. That has led to injuries at quarterback where both starter Daniel Jones (torn ACL) and backup Tyrod Taylor (ribs) currently reside on injured reserve. That leaves DeVito, the undrafted rookie out of Illinois by way of Syracuse, to run the show. After some predictable struggles, DeVito was solid in the win over Washington, tossing three touchdowns in the 31-19 victory on the road. DeVito has some mobility to buy time and has a decent set of receivers to throw to, although leading target Darren Waller is also on IR. WanDale Robinson, Jalin Hyatt, Darius Slayton and Parris Campbell are the top wideouts with Daniel Bellinger filling in for Waller at tight end. Barkley is a frequent option out of the backfield as well. The Patriots secondary has not performed well as of late and will roll with Jonathan Jones, Myles Bryant and Shaun Wade after the departure of Jack Jones, although J.C. Jackson could get back in the mix. Despite the struggles, the Patriots should be able to contain DeVito.

Special Teams – Edge: Patriots

The Giants are one of the few teams that has struggled more on special teams than the Patriots. While the Patriots have been unable to find consistency in the kicking game, particularly with penalties, the Giants issues have run the gamut as well. The kick receiving team ranks near the bottom of the league in average drive start while the kickoff team is in the bottom third. Kicker Graham Gano struggled before landing on injured reserve but not before missing six of his 17 field goals. Veteran Randy Bullock took his place and has made both of his attempts thus far. Jamie Gillian (64) and Bryce Baringer (50) have been among the most active punters in football and neither has been particularly effective. The teams have also struggled in the return game as neither Parris Campbell (kicks)/Gunner Olszewski (punts) nor Ty Montgomery (kicks)/Demario Douglas (punts) has been able to muster much in the way of game-changing plays. Rookie Chad Ryland missed his fifth field goal of the season in Germany, a 35-yarder that he pushed to the right. Not much to choose from between these two struggling teams.