AAA projects 54.3 million Americans will journey 50 miles or more away from home this Thanksgiving, a 4.8 percent increase over last year. The 2018 holiday weekend will see the highest Thanksgiving travel volume in more than a dozen years (since 2005), with 2.5 million more people taking to the nation’s roads, skies, rails and waterways compared with last year. For the 48.5 million Americans planning a Thanksgiving road trip, INRIX, a global mobility analytics company, predicts travel times in the most congested cities in the U.S. could be as much as four times longer than a normal trip.
Travelers from the New England states will top 2.4 million, with close to 2.1 million of them traveling by car. Both are also the largest numbers seen locally since 2005.
“Consumers have a lot to be thankful for this holiday season: higher wages, more disposable income and rising levels of household wealth,” said Lloyd Albert, AAA Northeast Senior Vice President of Public and Government Affairs. “This is translating into more travelers kicking off the holiday season with a Thanksgiving getaway, building on a positive year for the travel industry.”
The Thanksgiving holiday period is defined as Wednesday, November 21 to Sunday, November 25.
By the Numbers: 2018 Thanksgiving Holiday Travel Forecast
- Automobiles: The vast majority of travelers – 48.5 million – will hit the road this Thanksgiving, nearly 5 percent more than last year.
- Planes: The largest growth in holiday travel is by air, at 5.4 percent, with 4.27 million travelers.
- Trains, Buses and Cruise Ships: Travel across these sectors will increase by 1.4 percent, with a total 1.48 million passengers.
Drivers Beware: Thanksgiving’s Terrible Traffic
Based on historical and recent travel trends, INRIX, in collaboration with AAA, predicts drivers will experience the greatest amount of congestion Thanksgiving week during the early evening commute period, with travel times starting to increase on Monday. Drivers in San Francisco, New York City and Boston will see the largest delays – nearly quadruple normal drive times.
“Thanksgiving is one of the busiest holidays for road trips, and this year will be no different,” says Trevor Reed, transportation analyst at INRIX. “Knowing when and where congestion will build can help drivers avoid the stress of sitting in traffic. Our advice to drivers is to avoid commuting times in major cities altogether or plan alternative routes.”
In most cases, the best days to travel will be on Thanksgiving Day, Friday or Saturday. Drivers should expect increased travel times on Sunday as most holiday travelers will be making their way home after the long weekend.
|
Worst Times to Hit the Road in America’s Largest Cities |
||||
|
Metro Area |
Worst Day for Travel |
Worst Time for Travel |
Worst Hotspot |
Delay Multiplier |
|
Houston |
Monday |
2:00 – 4:00 PM |
TX-8 Beltway E, TX249 to I69 |
2.75 |
|
Boston |
Tuesday |
4:00 – 6:00 PM |
I-495 S, exit 41 to 33 |
3.5x |
|
Seattle |
Tuesday |
4:00 – 6:00 PM |
I-5 S, exit 178 to 149 |
2x |
|
Atlanta |
Tuesday |
5:00 – 7:00 PM |
I-75 N, exit 216 to 227 |
2.75x |
|
Washington, D.C. |
Tuesday |
5:00 – 7:00 PM |
Capital Beltway Clockwise |
2.5x |
|
Detroit |
Tuesday |
5:30 – 7:30 PM |
US-23 N, exit 35 to 49 |
2.5x |
|
New York |
Tuesday |
6:00 – 8:00 PM |
I-95 W, exit 7 to Hamilton Bridge |
3.5x |
|
San Francisco |
Wednesday |
1:00 – 3:00 PM |
I-680 N, exit 8 to 21 |
4x |
|
Chicago |
Wednesday |
2:30 – 4:30 PM |
I-94 W, exit 40A to 1 |
2x |
|
Los Angeles 
|
Wednesday |
2:30 – 4:30 PM |
I-5 S, exit 79 to 54B |
2x |
|
Source: INRIX |
||||
Best Times to Fly and Book Thanksgiving Flights
An analysis of AAA’s flight booking data from the last three years revealed that the Tuesday and Wednesday prior to Thanksgiving are usually the most popular air travel days and have the highest average price per roundtrip ticket. Meanwhile, Thanksgiving Day consistently has the lowest average price per ticket and is the lightest travel day. Travelers looking to save money this holiday season can fly the morning of the holiday and arrive just in time for Thanksgiving dinner.
|
Day |
3-Year Average Ticket Price |
Expected Crowds |
|
Monday (November 19, 2018) |
$465 |
Moderate |
|
Tuesday (November 20, 2018) |
$509 |
Heavy |
|
Wednesday (November 21, 2018) |
$507 |
Heavy |
|
Thursday (November 22, 2018) |
$446 |
Light |
Most travelers booked their flights for Thanksgiving between September 23 and October 25, paying an average ticket price of $478 roundtrip. Procrastinating travelers who still need to book their flights may find cheaper airfares, paying an average ticket price of $459 between now and November 15. However, last-minute flight availability will likely be very limited.
Top 10 Thanksgiving Destinations
Many travelers will seek iconic American cities, theme parks and other warm-weather destinations this Thanksgiving. Orlando, New York City and Anaheim top this year’s top 10 holiday destinations based on AAA’s online and travel agency air and tour bookings. Punta Cana, Dallas/Fort Worth and Miami are all gaining popularity as holiday spots compared with last year.
- Orlando, Florida
- New York, New York
- Anaheim, California
- Punta Cana, Dominican Republic
- Las Vegas, Nevada
- Cancun, Mexico
- Dallas/Fort Worth, Texas
- Honolulu, Hawaii
- Washington, DC
- Miami, Florida
AAA to Rescue Nearly 360,000 Motorists
AAA expects to rescue nearly 360,000 motorists at the roadside this Thanksgiving. Dead batteries, lockouts and flat tires will be the leading reasons AAA members will experience car trouble. AAA recommends motorists take their vehicle to a trusted repair facility to perform any needed maintenance before heading out. Oil changes, fluid level checks, battery tests and tire inspections go a long way toward reducing the chances of a breakdown.
Download the AAA Mobile App Before Thanksgiving
Before heading out on a trip for Thanksgiving, download the free AAA Mobile app for iPhone, iPad and Android. Travelers can use the app to map a route, find the lowest gas prices, access exclusive member discounts, make travel arrangements, request AAA roadside assistance, find AAA Approved Auto Repair facilities and more. Learn more at AAA.com/mobile.
AAA’s projections are based on economic forecasting and research by IHS Markit. The London-based business information provider teamed with AAA in 2009 to jointly analyze travel trends during major holidays. AAA has been reporting on holiday travel trends for more than two decades.